Open for forecastingClinical TrialsReleased Dec 18, 2025

ATTAIN-MAINTAIN (orforglipron) weight maintenance after switching from Wegovy or Zepbound

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Trial setup

- Trial: ATTAIN-MAINTAIN (NCT06584916), Phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled. - Population: adults with obesity/overweight who previously completed SURMOUNT-5 and reached a weight plateau. - Re-randomization: 3:2 to orforglipron (titrated to MTD 24 mg or 36 mg) vs placebo. - Primary objective: demonstrate superior maintenance of prior weight loss vs placebo over 52 weeks. - Rescue: participants who regained >=50% of prior weight loss could receive rescue orforglipron (post-hoc topline sometimes reports Week 24 as last pre-rescue time point).

Model leaderboard

How AI models scored forecasting this event. Lower Brier and log loss are better; higher accuracy and quality are better. Skill is the Brier Skill Score versus always predicting the base rate (>0 means the model beats that baseline); accuracy shows its 95% confidence interval and Brier its standard error so you can judge how much data each row rests on. Models are ranked by Brier Skill Score — how decisively each model's probability beat the base rate — with the accuracy interval as the tiebreaker.

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