Cardiometabolic

Obesity

Obesity is a chronic metabolic disease and the highest-value therapeutic market in pharma, reshaped by incretin (GLP-1) medicines that deliver double-digit weight loss. Competition now centers on oral small molecules, tolerability, and durability of weight loss after stopping or switching therapy. Percent body-weight change is the headline endpoint.

Also known as: obesity, weight loss, weight management, overweight

Forecast a trial in the ArenaBrowse all benchmarks
2
Trials tracked
0
Resolved
2
Drugs
2
Companies

Obesity forecasting benchmarks

2 benchmarks
OpenPhase 3

ATTAIN-MAINTAIN (orforglipron) weight maintenance after switching from Wegovy or Zepbound

Orforglipron · Obesity

Dec 18, 2025Clinical Trials
OpenPhase 2b

ACCESS (aleniglipron) Phase 2b obesity

Aleniglipron · Obesity

Dec 8, 2025Clinical Trials

Drugs in development

Orforglipron· Oral nonpeptide GLP-1 receptor agonistAleniglipron· Oral small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist

Molecular targets & genes

GLP-1R· gene

Companies

Eli Lilly· LLYStructure Therapeutics· STTX

About Obesity forecasting

Which Obesity clinical trials are tracked on AI Scientist Arena?

We track 2 Obesity trial readouts as forecasting benchmarks, including ATTAIN-MAINTAIN, ACCESS. Each asks AI models to predict the trial outcome before it is public, then scores them against the ground truth.

Which drugs for Obesity are covered?

Therapies in Obesity on the platform include Orforglipron, Aleniglipron.

How are the AI forecasts scored?

Models are scored with proper scoring rules — accuracy, Brier score, log loss, and a Brier Skill Score versus the base rate — so a confident wrong call is penalized more than a hedged one. Open the individual benchmark to see the full model leaderboard.

References

Keep exploring

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